Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 0.101525 0.116219 0.132189 0.150823 0.171952 0.195156 0.222556
2026-02-01 0.076042 0.094434 0.115991 0.143077 0.176152 0.215177 0.264671
2026-02-08 0.059445 0.079621 0.104982 0.139094 0.183660 0.239785 0.315701
2026-02-15 0.046669 0.067205 0.094798 0.134390 0.189521 0.263323 0.369330
2026-02-22 0.039228 0.060501 0.090939 0.137344 0.205922 0.303072 0.450574
2026-03-01 0.031353 0.051703 0.082659 0.132707 0.211023 0.328151 0.515636
2026-03-08 0.025505 0.044853 0.076056 0.129405 0.217536 0.356247 0.589566
2026-03-15 0.020912 0.039126 0.070196 0.126230 0.223689 0.384673 0.668404
2026-03-22 0.018264 0.036210 0.068469 0.129606 0.241124 0.433700 0.787960
2026-03-29 0.015527 0.032580 0.064840 0.128997 0.251535 0.472391 0.895716
2026-04-05 0.013558 0.030027 0.062731 0.130802 0.266574 0.521303 1.028671
2026-04-12 0.011982 0.027950 0.061163 0.133364 0.283425 0.575852 1.179791
2026-04-19 0.009868 0.024335 0.055953 0.127938 0.284220 0.601216 1.281327
2026-04-26 0.007996 0.020845 0.050343 0.120650 0.279995 0.616181 1.364904
2026-05-03 0.006693 0.018403 0.046588 0.116766 0.282461 0.645326 1.482473
2026-05-10 0.005587 0.016192 0.042930 0.112418 0.283161 0.670884 1.596479
2026-05-17 0.004997 0.015201 0.042050 0.114619 0.299548 0.733563 1.802305
2026-05-24 0.004205 0.013456 0.038896 0.110504 0.299962 0.759915 1.929075
2026-05-31 0.003589 0.012062 0.036383 0.107573 0.302840 0.792524 2.075611
2026-06-07 0.003075 0.010842 0.034092 0.104792 0.305629 0.825347 2.227638
2026-06-14 0.002808 0.010345 0.033775 0.107523 0.323732 0.899231 2.493337
2026-06-21 0.002479 0.009553 0.032414 0.106941 0.332551 0.950475 2.708145
2026-06-28 0.002244 0.009025 0.031762 0.108393 0.347502 1.020261 2.982261